Who's Going to Beijing for the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim?

Sports fans love talking about how their favorite teams and players will perform. But, these educated and emotional guesses are easy compared to predicting who will qualify for the Olympics in the world's most pressure-packed race in open water swimming history: the 2008 World Open Water Swimming Championships. The top 15 (or 16) finishers at the 2008 World Championships will qualify for the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim in Seville to be held May 3rd (women) and May 4th (men). An additional 9 (or 10) spots will be filled in the second qualifying swim to be held in the actual Olympic course in Beijing in June.

Anything can go wrong in open water swimming. All athletes plan for the unexpected. My predictions and prognostication reasons are listed below. Everyone's bold and/or anonymous predictions - and reasons why - are greatly welcomed. Given it a shot. Don't be shy - give us your best patriotic, wild, insider, educated or outlandish predictions. Don't be afraid to criticize my predictions, but make sure to give reasons why.

TOP TEN MEN / WHY

1. Grant Hackett, Australia
   Fastest 200 freestyler in field + double gold medalist in 1500 freestyle + physical size

2. Vladimir Dyatchin, Russia
   Savvy racer + fast closing speed + 2007 world 10K champion

3. Thomas Lurz, Germany
   High navigational IQ + can maintain any pace + 2006 world 10K champion

4. Chip Peterson, U.S.A.
   Great endurance + can maintain composure and swim at any pace + 2005 world 10K champion

5. Mark Warkentin, U.S.A.
   Powerful swimmer + great patience + hitting peak

6. Mohamed El-Zanaty, Egypt
   Powerful swimmer + physical size + incredible motivation (as the lone serious medal contender from a Muslim country)

7. Spyridon Gianniotis, Greece
   Great endurance (15:03 in 1500 freestyle) + great closing speed (400 freestyle Olympic finalist)

8. David Davies, Great Britain
   Great endurance (14:45 in 1500 freestyle) + composure in close races (2004 Olympic bronze medalist)

9. Valerio Cleri, Italy
   Experience (multiple FINA World Cup winner) + closing speed + savvy racer (medalist at world championship races)

10. Petar Stoychev, Bulgaria
    Most experience in field + motivation + savvy racer (multiple FINA World Cup and FINA Grand Prix winner)

Who might this leave out of the Top Ten? Alan Bircher of Great Britain, Maarten van der Weijden of the Netherlands, Rondy Gilles of France, Evgeny Drattsev of Russia, Ky Hurst of Australia, Christian Hein of Germany and Simone Ercoli of Italy. Clearly, on any given day, all these men are fully capable of not only qualifying, but also placing in the top three.

TOP TEN WOMEN / WHY

1. Larisa Ilchenko, Russia
   Speed + endurance + track record of success (multiple 5K and 10K world champion)

2. Kirsten Groome, U.S.A.
   Competitiveness + great endurance + closing speed

3. Cassandra Patten, Great Britain
   Endurance + toughness + can maintain position around turn buoys

4. Poliana Okimoto, Brazil
   Speed + motivation (as the lone serious medal contender from a South American country) + savvy racer (multiple FINA World Cup champion)

5. Micha Burden, U.S.A.
   Highest navigational IQ + strongest will in field (coming back from a broken rib in an earlier FINA race this year)

6. Melissa Gorman, Australia
   Another great Australian distance freestyler with endurance + excellent speed

7. Britta Corestein, Germany
   Extremely experienced swimmer (nearly always finishing in the top 5 in 5K, 10K and 25K races) + proven endurance + speed

8. Angela Maurer, Germany
   Speed + race experience (2003 10K World Championship bronze medalist) + life experience (mother of a 4-year-old)

9. Edith van Dijk, Netherlands
   Speed + race experience (2005 10K World Championship bronze medalist) + life experience (mother of a 2-year-old)

10. Jana Pechanova, Czech Republic
    Always finishing in the top ten in the 5K, 10K and 25K races + excellent endurance + speed (8:39 800 freestyler)

Who might this leave out of the Top Ten? Keri-Anne Payne of Great Britain, Martina Grimaldi of Italy, Rita Kovacs of Hungary, Karley Stutzel of Canada and Ksenia Popova of Russia. On any given day, all these women are fully capable of not only qualifying. Expect the Unexpected!